Criticism - What Savings
You Will Not Save Much Money
We get this criticism frequently. Far and away the number 1 criticism of our approach is that it won't make a difference. The criticisms don't have any data to support them, but we will address them as best we can.
First, our target audience is about 4-6% of the covered workers. The plan is designed to attract workers who are at the high-end of the income spectrum. At 5% of the work force you get somewhere in the area of 7 million workers. The benefit exchange will be expensive and runs around 70% of future benefits. Say average benefits are $18,000 per year in this group on which the concession is $12,600 or roughly $100 billion saved per year. These people get what they want - and the system saves 100 billion per year.
This are actually fairly modest estimates. First, our research shows that using the phrase "putting your money out of the reach of Congress" creates a 100% acceptance rate. In this audience you are getting people that you really do not want. People like me simply do not generate the marginal cost savings. The only way to cut down the weaker participants is raising the price. You want only those candidates who truely value the benefit. You do not want candidates who just hate Congress or the Social Security system. It needs to be a benefit not a political statement.
Second, the stock market has outperformed the government bond market by 50 to 1 over the life of Social Security. By moving assets into more productive uses, the Trust Fund will earn higher yields on its assets. Assuming that you move 15% of your trust assets into the stock market you will create 3 billion in additional revenue for every 1% of yield above Treasuries.
The approach works on basic economic theory of supply and demand. If risk increases in Social Security, then the value of risk management benefits will rise. As that happens, people will make larger concessions thus bring risk back down. In contrast, when risk rises today people seek to retire earlier so that they can capture as much of the benefits as possible. This increases the risk in the system.